Copa do Brasil 1/32
Global 3-2
Guaratinguetá vs Caxias do Sul analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
68.9%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.3%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.1%
1-0
12.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
9.2%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19.4%
11.7%
Win probability
0.71
Expected goals
0-1
4.4%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.6%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Guaratinguetá
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb. 2009 |
GUA
4 - 0
SAN
22%
23%
55%
|
60 | 74 | 14 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 1
GUA
34%
26%
40%
|
60 | 52 | 8 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2009 |
GUA
1 - 1
SAO
29%
25%
47%
|
60 | 72 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2009 |
GUA
2 - 1
MOG
52%
24%
25%
|
60 | 57 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2009 |
PAU
4 - 1
GUA
55%
22%
23%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Caxias do Sul
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb. 2009 |
SCI
5 - 1
CAX
82%
15%
4%
|
52 | 86 | 34 | 0 |
| 12 Feb. 2009 |
CAX
0 - 1
ECA
52%
23%
26%
|
53 | 51 | 2 | -1 |
| 08 Feb. 2009 |
CAX
2 - 1
BRA
64%
20%
16%
|
53 | 47 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2009 |
NOV
2 - 0
CAX
52%
24%
24%
|
54 | 50 | 4 | -1 |
| 31 Jan. 2009 |
ESP
0 - 0
CAX
45%
26%
29%
|
54 | 49 | 5 | 0 |