FA Cup Previa 1
First leg 1-1
Gresley vs Dunkirk analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
21.4%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.1%
2-0
2.4%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
5.9%
1-0
3.7%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
12.6%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
58.9%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.8%
0-2
7.2%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
2.6%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
17.5%
0-3
5.4%
1-4
4%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
10.8%
0-4
3.1%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5.4%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.8%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gresley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2019 |
DUN
1 - 1
GRE
68%
17%
15%
|
16 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2019 |
PON
3 - 0
GRE
89%
8%
3%
|
16 | 38 | 22 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2019 |
GRE
1 - 2
LOU
10%
17%
74%
|
16 | 33 | 17 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2019 |
TAD
2 - 1
GRE
82%
13%
5%
|
16 | 38 | 22 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2019 |
GRE
0 - 3
MAN
14%
18%
69%
|
17 | 29 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Dunkirk
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug. 2019 |
DUN
1 - 1
GRE
68%
17%
15%
|
23 | 16 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2018 |
RAI
2 - 1
DUN
18%
18%
64%
|
24 | 16 | 8 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2017 |
MAN
6 - 2
DUN
48%
22%
30%
|
25 | 26 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Aug. 2017 |
KIR
0 - 2
DUN
21%
20%
59%
|
24 | 17 | 7 | +1 |
| 05 Aug. 2017 |
DUN
2 - 1
LEI
74%
15%
11%
|
24 | 14 | 10 | 0 |