Copa do Brasil Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
Grêmio vs Bahía analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
75.2%
Win probability
2.38
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.4%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.5%
5-0
3%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.9%
4-0
6.3%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
8.6%
3-0
10.5%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
15.5%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22.1%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
16%
Draw
0-0
4.7%
1-1
7.6%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16%
8.8%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6.6%
0-2
1.1%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2023 |
GRE
0 - 2
BOT
57%
23%
20%
|
88 | 86 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2023 |
BAH
1 - 1
GRE
28%
26%
46%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
BAH
1 - 2
GRE
31%
27%
43%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2023 |
GRE
5 - 1
COT
72%
17%
11%
|
87 | 75 | 12 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2023 |
GRE
3 - 1
AMF
58%
23%
20%
|
86 | 85 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Bahía
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
CUI
1 - 1
BAH
52%
26%
23%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2023 |
BAH
1 - 1
GRE
28%
26%
46%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
BAH
1 - 2
GRE
31%
27%
43%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2023 |
FLU
2 - 1
BAH
75%
17%
8%
|
79 | 90 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2023 |
BAH
1 - 0
PAL
22%
25%
53%
|
78 | 90 | 12 | +1 |