Copa Libertadores Quarter-finals
Global 2-2
Grêmio vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.4%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.9%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.7%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.1%
1-0
12.4%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
25%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
22.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
FLU
50%
24%
26%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 May. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 0
GRE
52%
23%
25%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2007 |
PAR
3 - 0
GRE
41%
26%
33%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2007 |
GRE
2 - 0
SAO
29%
26%
45%
|
81 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2007 |
GRE
4 - 1
JUV
60%
22%
19%
|
80 | 75 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 May. 2007 |
DEF
2 - 0
GRE
52%
23%
25%
|
81 | 82 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2007 |
CSM
1 - 0
DEF
33%
27%
40%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | -1 |
| 10 May. 2007 |
FLA
2 - 0
DEF
46%
25%
28%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 May. 2007 |
DEF
0 - 2
DAN
50%
24%
26%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | -1 |
| 03 May. 2007 |
DEF
3 - 0
FLA
59%
22%
20%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | +1 |