Q. Europa League 3rd Round Final
Global 0-3
Gefle vs Qarabağ analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
42.3%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.2%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.2%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.5%
1-0
11%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.4%
26.6%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
31.1%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.6%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.6%
0-3
2%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Gefle
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2013 |
ATV
1 - 1
GEF
53%
24%
22%
|
72 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2013 |
QAR
1 - 0
GEF
43%
27%
30%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | -1 |
| 28 Jul. 2013 |
GEF
2 - 0
MFF
21%
25%
54%
|
72 | 82 | 10 | +1 |
| 25 Jul. 2013 |
GEF
4 - 0
ANO
28%
27%
45%
|
70 | 80 | 10 | +2 |
| 18 Jul. 2013 |
ANO
3 - 0
GEF
64%
21%
15%
|
71 | 80 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Qarabağ
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2013 |
SHA
1 - 2
QAR
41%
29%
30%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | 0 |
| 01 Aug. 2013 |
QAR
1 - 0
GEF
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 25 Jul. 2013 |
PGL
2 - 2
QAR
44%
25%
30%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2013 |
QAR
2 - 1
PGL
51%
26%
23%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 11 Jul. 2013 |
QAR
1 - 0
MET
53%
26%
21%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |