Fortaleza vs Real Cartagena analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
68.2%
Win probability
2.02
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.3%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
9%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
12.7%
2-0
13.4%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.2%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
9.3%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19.8%
12%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.8%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-6%
-2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
39
1º
5º
1º
27
3º
11º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
39 | 43 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 31 |
2º
|
65% | |
|
2º
|
27 | 30 |
3º
|
21.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
27 | 30 |
4º
|
32% | |
|
5º
|
26 | 29 |
5º
|
17.5% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 27 |
6º
|
41.5% | |
|
7º
|
24 | 27 |
7º
|
49.5% | |
|
8º
|
22 | 23 |
8º
|
91% | |
|
9º
|
21 | 21 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
21 | 21 |
10º
|
0% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 18 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
17 | 17 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 16 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
15 | 15 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
14 | 14 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 9 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Next round
|
100% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fortaleza
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Sep. 2023 |
FOR
2 - 0
COR
66%
20%
14%
|
76 | 66 | 10 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 1
FOR
23%
29%
48%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2023 |
FOR
1 - 0
PAT
64%
22%
14%
|
76 | 70 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2023 |
LLA
1 - 2
FOR
41%
29%
30%
|
75 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
| 30 Aug. 2023 |
FOR
3 - 1
LEO
58%
22%
21%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Real Cartagena
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sep. 2023 |
CUC
2 - 0
CAR
62%
23%
16%
|
67 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Sep. 2023 |
CAR
1 - 1
TFC
70%
20%
10%
|
67 | 58 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Sep. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 0
CAR
35%
28%
38%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 03 Sep. 2023 |
CAR
1 - 0
ORS
70%
19%
11%
|
66 | 54 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2023 |
REA
0 - 1
CAR
35%
27%
37%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |