Copa do Brasil 1/16
First leg 5-3
Fluminense vs CENE analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
84.6%
Win probability
2.9
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.5%
7-0
1.1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2.6%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.3%
5-0
5.4%
6-1
1.5%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
7%
4-0
9.3%
5-1
3%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.7%
3-0
12.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.9%
2-0
13.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
22%
1-0
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.8%
10.7%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
5.1%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
10.7%
4.6%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar. 2006 |
CEN
3 - 5
FLU
12%
18%
70%
|
81 | 56 | 25 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2006 |
VOL
1 - 2
FLU
13%
19%
69%
|
81 | 58 | 23 | 0 |
| 12 Mar. 2006 |
FLU
2 - 2
BOT
62%
21%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 09 Mar. 2006 |
FLU
3 - 1
OPE
78%
15%
8%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 05 Mar. 2006 |
FLU
2 - 2
VAS
54%
22%
25%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
CENE
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr. 2006 |
CEN
4 - 1
MAR
86%
10%
4%
|
56 | 23 | 33 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2006 |
CEN
3 - 2
OPE
36%
24%
40%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | +1 |
| 22 Mar. 2006 |
CEN
3 - 5
FLU
12%
18%
70%
|
56 | 81 | 25 | -1 |
| 19 Mar. 2006 |
COX
2 - 1
CEN
25%
22%
53%
|
56 | 43 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2006 |
CEN
4 - 1
RIO
83%
12%
5%
|
56 | 25 | 31 | 0 |