Copa Sudamericana Quarter-finals
Global 4-3
Flamengo vs Fluminense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
63.2%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.9%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
11.7%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.4%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.2%
15.6%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Flamengo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct. 2017 |
FLA
0 - 0
VAS
68%
20%
13%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2017 |
FLU
0 - 1
FLA
39%
27%
34%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2017 |
SAO
2 - 0
FLA
33%
27%
41%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 2017 |
FLA
4 - 1
BAH
71%
19%
10%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2017 |
CHA
0 - 1
FLA
29%
27%
44%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | +1 |
Matches
Fluminense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2017 |
FLU
1 - 1
BAH
57%
24%
19%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2017 |
FLU
0 - 1
FLA
39%
27%
34%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2017 |
CHA
2 - 0
FLU
39%
27%
34%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2017 |
FLU
3 - 1
SAO
53%
25%
22%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2017 |
FLU
1 - 0
AVA
68%
20%
12%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |