Ustrem Donchevo vs Cherno More Varna II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
15.5%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.6%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.2%
2-0
1.8%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
4%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
4.3%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
+1
9.9%
17.9%
Draw
0-0
2.9%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
17.9%
66.6%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
22%
0-2
8.7%
1-3
7.7%
2-4
2.6%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
19.5%
0-3
7%
1-4
4.7%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
13.1%
0-4
4.3%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.5%
3-7
0.1%
-4
7.1%
0-5
2.1%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
3.2%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
-6
1.2%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-33%
-30%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
9º
14º
12º
46
3º
10º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
74 | 77 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
65 | 68 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
56 | 56 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
52 | 55 |
4º
|
88.5% | |
|
4º
|
54 | 54 |
5º
|
88.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
46 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
41 | 44 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
40 | 40 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
22 | 25 |
10º
|
72% | |
|
11º
|
22 | 22 |
11º
|
66.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
21 | 21 |
12º
|
73.5% | |
|
13º
|
20 | 20 |
13º
|
81% | |
|
14º
|
15 | 15 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
12 | 12 |
15º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
82% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
18% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ustrem Donchevo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2022 |
CHE
1 - 0
UST
86%
11%
4%
|
25 | 54 | 29 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
FKR
4 - 1
UST
36%
21%
44%
|
27 | 24 | 3 | -2 |
| 13 Nov. 2022 |
UST
2 - 0
SGT
76%
14%
10%
|
27 | 18 | 9 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
FSV
4 - 0
UST
63%
18%
18%
|
28 | 36 | 8 | -1 |
| 30 Oct. 2022 |
UST
2 - 1
CHE
16%
18%
67%
|
26 | 41 | 15 | +2 |
Matches
Cherno More Varna II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov. 2022 |
LOR
0 - 3
CMV
5%
11%
84%
|
39 | 12 | 27 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2022 |
CMV
0 - 1
SVE
48%
25%
27%
|
40 | 41 | 1 | -1 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
LUD
2 - 1
CMV
65%
19%
16%
|
41 | 46 | 5 | -1 |
| 05 Nov. 2022 |
CMV
0 - 2
SEP
33%
26%
41%
|
42 | 50 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2022 |
CHE
1 - 0
CMV
73%
17%
11%
|
43 | 54 | 11 | -1 |