Q. Europa League Tercera Ronda Final
Global 2-3
Partizan Belgrade vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
38.6%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.1%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
2.8%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.1%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
11.5%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.4%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
37.9%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
3.5%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
19.2%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.2%
0-3
2.7%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
5%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-16%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2024 |
PAR
2 - 0
ZEL
70%
19%
11%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
PAR
0 - 3
DYN
39%
24%
37%
|
83 | 86 | 3 | -1 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
JED
0 - 4
PAR
14%
23%
63%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | +1 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
DYN
6 - 2
PAR
50%
23%
27%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 19 Jul. 2024 |
NAP
0 - 1
PAR
13%
22%
65%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 1
SER
43%
25%
32%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
2 - 1
LUG
55%
21%
24%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
BAS
1 - 2
LUG
38%
25%
37%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
3 - 4
FEN
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 1
GCZ
57%
23%
20%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |