UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 1-3
Partizan Belgrade vs Ludogorets analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.8%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.4%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.2%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.5%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
19.5%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.5%
15.7%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jul. 2013 |
LUD
2 - 1
PAR
41%
26%
34%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2013 |
PAR
0 - 0
SHI
78%
14%
8%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2013 |
SHI
1 - 1
PAR
25%
26%
49%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2013 |
PAR
5 - 0
FKS
77%
15%
8%
|
83 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 22 May. 2013 |
SME
0 - 2
PAR
9%
21%
70%
|
83 | 57 | 26 | 0 |
Matches
Ludogorets
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Aug. 2013 |
SSO
0 - 3
LUD
34%
27%
39%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2013 |
LUD
2 - 1
PAR
41%
26%
34%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | +1 |
| 27 Jul. 2013 |
LUD
1 - 0
CHB
55%
24%
21%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2013 |
LUD
3 - 0
SBR
53%
24%
23%
|
77 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2013 |
LYU
1 - 0
LUD
23%
26%
51%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | -1 |