UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 5-1
Partizan Belgrade vs HJK Helsinki analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
67.5%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.9%
4-0
4.5%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.8%
3-0
8%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.1%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.2%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
18.5%
14%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
9.5%
0-2
1.8%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.4%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+11%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jul. 2010 |
PYU
0 - 1
PAR
36%
25%
39%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2010 |
PAR
3 - 1
PYU
75%
16%
10%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
PAR
6 - 0
MLA
84%
12%
4%
|
83 | 59 | 24 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2010 |
BEO
0 - 3
PAR
37%
27%
37%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2010 |
PAR
1 - 0
CRV
57%
23%
21%
|
83 | 83 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
HJK Helsinki
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2010 |
HAK
0 - 3
HJK
30%
27%
44%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2010 |
HJK
2 - 0
FKE
47%
25%
28%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Jul. 2010 |
HJK
1 - 2
KUO
67%
21%
12%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2010 |
FKE
1 - 0
HJK
55%
23%
23%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2010 |
HJK
3 - 1
TAM
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 72 | 6 | 0 |