Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 3-4
Partizan Belgrade vs AEK Larnaca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.7%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.8%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.6%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.6%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
17.8%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Partizan Belgrade
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
AEK
2 - 1
PAR
35%
27%
38%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2022 |
NPA
1 - 0
PAR
19%
25%
56%
|
83 | 67 | 16 | -1 |
| 23 Jul. 2022 |
PAR
0 - 0
TSC
66%
20%
15%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2022 |
RAD
3 - 3
PAR
33%
27%
40%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2022 |
JAV
0 - 4
PAR
26%
26%
48%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
AEK Larnaca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
AEK
2 - 1
PAR
35%
27%
38%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2022 |
AEK
1 - 1
MID
24%
25%
51%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2022 |
MID
1 - 1
AEK
67%
19%
14%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 12 Jul. 2022 |
APO
2 - 2
AEK
44%
26%
29%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2022 |
VAR
2 - 2
AEK
46%
25%
29%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |