FS Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
29.9%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.8%
4-1
0.6%
5-2
0.1%
+3
2.6%
2-0
5.2%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
8.1%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
6.8%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.5%
27.6%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.6%
42.5%
Win probability
1.31
Expected goals
0-1
12.3%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
23%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
12.5%
0-3
3.5%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.9%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.5%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
4º
9º
8º
21
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
37 | 75 |
1º
|
52% | |
|
1º
|
39 | 74 |
2º
|
47% | |
|
3º
|
25 | 57 |
3º
|
39.5% | |
|
4º
|
22 | 57 |
4º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
21 | 47 |
5º
|
31% | |
|
8º
|
16 | 41 |
6º
|
18% | |
|
7º
|
17 | 40 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 40 |
8º
|
16.5% | |
|
10º
|
11 | 34 |
9º
|
25.5% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 32 |
10º
|
40% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
1% | 9% |
|
Mid-table
|
69.5% | 85% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
17.5% | 3.5% |
|
Relegation
|
12% | 2.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
FS Jelgava
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
FKJ
2 - 1
SUP
34%
27%
39%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2025 |
AUD
2 - 0
FKJ
67%
21%
12%
|
61 | 76 | 15 | -1 |
| 15 Mar. 2025 |
FKJ
1 - 1
CAR
15%
22%
63%
|
60 | 76 | 16 | +1 |
| 11 Mar. 2025 |
RIG
1 - 0
FKJ
77%
15%
8%
|
60 | 76 | 16 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2025 |
GRO
1 - 1
FKJ
63%
20%
18%
|
60 | 64 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
BFC Daugavpils
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Apr. 2025 |
BFC
2 - 1
AUD
33%
26%
41%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Mar. 2025 |
CAR
1 - 2
BFC
63%
23%
15%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2025 |
BFC
1 - 2
RIG
28%
25%
47%
|
67 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2025 |
GRO
3 - 2
BFC
50%
24%
26%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 07 Mar. 2025 |
BFC
3 - 0
FKT
45%
24%
31%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | +2 |