First State vs Motown analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.2%
2-0
2.5%
3-1
2.5%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.1%
1-0
3.8%
2-1
5.6%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
12.9%
20%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20%
58.1%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
21.7%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
7%
2-4
2.6%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
17.3%
0-3
5.3%
1-4
3.9%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
10.6%
0-4
3%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.4%
3-7
0.1%
-4
5.2%
0-5
1.3%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
First State
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 2021 |
ATC
4 - 1
FST
76%
14%
10%
|
29 | 43 | 14 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2021 |
MON
4 - 4
FST
57%
20%
23%
|
28 | 31 | 3 | +1 |
| 30 May. 2021 |
HER
2 - 3
FST
10%
15%
75%
|
28 | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2021 |
FST
1 - 2
MON
46%
22%
32%
|
29 | 30 | 1 | -1 |
| 23 May. 2021 |
WCU
3 - 1
FST
77%
14%
9%
|
29 | 43 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Motown
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jun. 2021 |
WES
0 - 3
FCM
11%
15%
74%
|
38 | 19 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 2021 |
LON
2 - 0
FCM
61%
21%
18%
|
39 | 45 | 6 | -1 |
| 13 Jun. 2021 |
FCM
2 - 1
MON
68%
17%
15%
|
39 | 32 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Jun. 2021 |
FCM
1 - 3
NEW
86%
9%
4%
|
39 | 21 | 18 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2021 |
FCM
4 - 0
NJC
82%
12%
7%
|
39 | 24 | 15 | 0 |