Ferrymead Bays vs Universities AFC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
84.6%
Win probability
3.2
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.7%
7-0
1.3%
8-1
0.4%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.8%
6-0
2.9%
7-1
1%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.1%
5-0
5.5%
6-1
2.1%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
8%
4-0
8.6%
5-1
4%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
13.4%
3-0
10.7%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.7%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.6%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17.1%
10.1%
Draw
0-0
2%
1-1
4.6%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
10%
5.3%
Win probability
0.73
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
1.7%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.9%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+12%
-48%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
21
4º
8º
6º
4
6º
10º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 42 |
1º
|
68.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 40 |
2º
|
56.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 40 |
3º
|
56.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 28 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
6º
|
20 | 27 |
5º
|
32% | |
|
|
5º
|
21 | 25 |
6º
|
34.5% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 21 |
7º
|
39.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 19 |
8º
|
49.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
69.5% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
69.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 69.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 30.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ferrymead Bays
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul. 2025 |
CHR
1 - 0
FER
87%
9%
4%
|
21 | 42 | 21 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
FER
1 - 1
SUF
88%
9%
3%
|
21 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
FER
1 - 0
NSF
27%
21%
53%
|
20 | 25 | 5 | +1 |
| 14 Jun. 2025 |
FER
3 - 5
NSF
29%
22%
49%
|
21 | 24 | 3 | -1 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
FER
1 - 1
NOM
48%
22%
30%
|
21 | 21 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Universities AFC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul. 2025 |
UOC
1 - 6
NSF
7%
12%
81%
|
10 | 24 | 14 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
NOM
1 - 0
UOC
86%
9%
5%
|
10 | 21 | 11 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2025 |
UOC
1 - 2
WNK
9%
13%
78%
|
10 | 22 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2025 |
UOC
2 - 7
COA
7%
11%
82%
|
10 | 32 | 22 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2025 |
CAS
8 - 4
UOC
93%
5%
2%
|
10 | 33 | 23 | 0 |