Q. Europa League 3rd Round Final
Global 4-1
Utrecht vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.1%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
8%
2-0
8.8%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
24.1%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.6%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Utrecht
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul. 2010 |
TIR
1 - 1
UTR
42%
26%
33%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2010 |
UTR
4 - 0
TIR
59%
23%
19%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
UTR
4 - 1
RJC
55%
23%
22%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2010 |
RJC
0 - 2
UTR
50%
25%
26%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | +1 |
| 09 May. 2010 |
GRO
0 - 2
UTR
51%
25%
24%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul. 2010 |
YOB
1 - 1
FCL
66%
20%
15%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 2010 |
FCL
4 - 0
STG
52%
23%
25%
|
77 | 75 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2010 |
GCZ
0 - 1
FCL
60%
23%
18%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | +1 |
| 13 May. 2010 |
FCL
5 - 1
YOB
27%
23%
50%
|
75 | 85 | 10 | +1 |
| 06 May. 2010 |
BEL
0 - 0
FCL
32%
25%
43%
|
75 | 64 | 11 | 0 |