UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 1-1
Twente vs Sporting CP analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.3%
Win probability
1.25
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
7%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.1%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.5%
27.5%
Draw
0-0
8.9%
1-1
13%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
27.5%
34.2%
Win probability
1.17
Expected goals
0-1
10.4%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
20.1%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
2.9%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.6%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+10%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Aug. 2009 |
SPA
0 - 2
TWE
26%
26%
48%
|
84 | 66 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2009 |
SCP
0 - 0
TWE
63%
22%
16%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2009 |
TWE
2 - 2
SCH
51%
24%
25%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2009 |
AJA
1 - 0
TWE
64%
21%
16%
|
85 | 88 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2009 |
TWE
3 - 0
AZA
42%
25%
33%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Sporting CP
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2009 |
SCP
0 - 0
TWE
63%
22%
16%
|
89 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 May. 2009 |
SCP
3 - 1
NAC
71%
18%
11%
|
88 | 79 | 9 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
MAR
1 - 2
SCP
24%
27%
49%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2009 |
SCP
2 - 1
VST
75%
17%
8%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2009 |
ACA
0 - 0
SCP
21%
26%
52%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |