Twente vs Excelsior analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
60.5%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.3%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.7%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
22.3%
Draw
0-0
6.5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
17.3%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+11%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
64
2º
6º
5º
32
3º
16º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
82 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
75 | 75 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
67 | 67 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
|
5º
|
64 | 64 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
59 | 59 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
54 | 54 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
46 | 46 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
41 | 41 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 40 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
39 | 39 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
36 | 36 |
14º
|
0% | |
|
|
15º
|
32 | 32 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
28 | 28 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
18 | 18 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
100% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
VOL
1 - 0
TWE
28%
24%
47%
|
81 | 70 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2022 |
TWE
0 - 0
FIO
34%
27%
40%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | +1 |
| 18 Aug. 2022 |
FIO
2 - 1
TWE
63%
19%
18%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
TWE
3 - 0
FOR
63%
22%
15%
|
80 | 68 | 12 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
TWE
4 - 1
ČUK
40%
26%
34%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2022 |
EXC
1 - 6
PSV
12%
18%
70%
|
68 | 88 | 20 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2022 |
EXC
3 - 1
VIT
22%
24%
54%
|
66 | 80 | 14 | +2 |
| 06 Aug. 2022 |
BVO
0 - 2
EXC
61%
21%
18%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2022 |
SCH
3 - 1
EXC
53%
23%
24%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2022 |
HER
2 - 1
EXC
50%
23%
28%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | 0 |