Nelson vs Motueka analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
80.9%
Win probability
2.65
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
4.2%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.5%
4-0
8%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.9%
3-0
12.1%
4-1
4.8%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.6%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.4%
1-0
10.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
2.1%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
13%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
6.2%
2-2
2.4%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
13%
6.1%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1.8%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.7%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nelson
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 May. 2023 |
MAF
2 - 1
FCN
5%
12%
83%
|
61 | 9 | 52 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2023 |
FCN
5 - 2
GBA
84%
12%
5%
|
61 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| 06 Jun. 2022 |
FCN
0 - 6
NSF
84%
11%
5%
|
61 | 29 | 32 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2022 |
FCN
3 - 2
TAH
86%
10%
3%
|
61 | 11 | 50 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2022 |
FCN
1 - 0
GBA
87%
10%
3%
|
61 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
Matches
Motueka
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 2023 |
MAF
0 - 9
NSF
8%
11%
81%
|
10 | 26 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 May. 2023 |
MAF
2 - 1
FCN
5%
12%
83%
|
9 | 61 | 52 | +1 |