Q. Europa League Third Round Final
Global 3-2
Ararat-Armenia vs FC Iberia 1999 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
51.8%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.9%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
6.5%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
15.6%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.4%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.4%
26.8%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
6.5%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
14.9%
0-2
3.2%
1-3
3.1%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.9%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Ararat-Armenia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2019 |
LRI
1 - 2
AVA
70%
16%
14%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2019 |
AVA
2 - 0
LRI
30%
20%
50%
|
73 | 80 | 7 | +1 |
| 17 Jul. 2019 |
AIK
3 - 1
AVA
66%
20%
14%
|
74 | 83 | 9 | -1 |
| 09 Jul. 2019 |
AVA
2 - 1
AIK
37%
25%
39%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
| 03 Jul. 2019 |
GOM
0 - 3
AVA
25%
23%
52%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
FC Iberia 1999
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2019 |
DZG
3 - 0
SAB
70%
18%
12%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2019 |
SAB
0 - 2
DZG
31%
27%
43%
|
77 | 87 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2019 |
SAB
1 - 3
SHF
41%
24%
35%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | -1 |
| 10 Jul. 2019 |
SHF
0 - 3
SAB
65%
20%
15%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | +1 |
| 02 Jul. 2019 |
SAB
2 - 2
MET
75%
16%
9%
|
77 | 62 | 15 | 0 |