Aarau vs FC Wil analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
52.6%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
5.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16%
1-0
9%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
22.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.9%
24.5%
Win probability
1.18
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.8%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.3%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
3º
7º
6º
44
1º
7º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Nov. 2023 |
FCA
0 - 0
SIO
33%
25%
42%
|
67 | 73 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
STA
4 - 0
FCA
29%
24%
47%
|
68 | 61 | 7 | -1 |
| 03 Nov. 2023 |
FCA
5 - 2
THU
36%
25%
40%
|
66 | 70 | 4 | +2 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 1
SCH
55%
22%
23%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
FCV
2 - 2
FCA
35%
25%
40%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
FC Wil
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Nov. 2023 |
FCV
2 - 2
WIL
44%
25%
32%
|
62 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 0
BEL
52%
25%
24%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2023 |
NEX
2 - 2
WIL
29%
25%
47%
|
62 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 1
BAD
59%
23%
19%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 3
THU
28%
25%
48%
|
63 | 68 | 5 | -1 |