Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.5%
Win probability
1.4
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.5%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.2%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.3%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
8.1%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.2%
24.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.8%
39.8%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.2%
1-3
4.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.8%
0-3
3.1%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.7%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+2%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
3º
7º
6º
76
1º
5º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 1
SCH
55%
22%
23%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
FCV
2 - 2
FCA
35%
25%
40%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2023 |
FCA
1 - 2
BEL
70%
18%
12%
|
67 | 56 | 11 | -1 |
| 29 Sep. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 2
FCA
34%
25%
41%
|
66 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 2023 |
FCA
3 - 2
FCV
38%
24%
38%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
THU
2 - 1
FCV
48%
24%
28%
|
69 | 65 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2023 |
WIL
0 - 3
THU
28%
25%
48%
|
68 | 63 | 5 | +1 |
| 07 Oct. 2023 |
THU
1 - 1
NEX
67%
20%
14%
|
69 | 57 | 12 | -1 |
| 01 Oct. 2023 |
FCV
1 - 1
THU
33%
25%
42%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2023 |
SIO
2 - 3
THU
41%
26%
33%
|
68 | 71 | 3 | +1 |