Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.9%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.1%
3-0
3.3%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.8%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
33.9%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
7.9%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.4%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.8%
0-3
2.3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
4%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+13%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
57
2º
7º
4º
49
4º
9º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
66 | 66 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
61 | 61 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
60 | 60 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
57 | 57 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
56 | 56 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
49 | 49 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
44 | 44 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 37 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
37 | 37 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
24 | 24 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
SCA
0 - 3
FCA
51%
21%
29%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2023 |
FCA
2 - 0
LUZ
64%
19%
17%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Jan. 2023 |
TUR
1 - 0
FCA
18%
18%
64%
|
65 | 57 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
LAU
2 - 2
FCA
41%
24%
35%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
FCA
1 - 0
SCH
46%
24%
30%
|
64 | 63 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2023 |
LAU
4 - 1
THU
44%
22%
33%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
YOB
2 - 0
THU
81%
13%
6%
|
65 | 85 | 20 | 0 |
| 10 Jan. 2023 |
THU
0 - 1
BEL
55%
22%
23%
|
65 | 59 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
THU
2 - 1
SIO
27%
23%
50%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2022 |
THU
1 - 1
FCV
37%
24%
39%
|
65 | 65 | 0 | 0 |