Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
41.1%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
5.6%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.3%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.7%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.3%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
35.1%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
0-1
6.7%
1-2
8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.6%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
10.3%
0-3
2.4%
1-4
1.5%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
0.9%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.4%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2021 |
STA
0 - 2
FCA
36%
25%
40%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Oct. 2021 |
FCA
0 - 0
KRI
73%
16%
11%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | -1 |
| 24 Sep. 2021 |
WIN
0 - 0
FCA
30%
23%
47%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
| 21 Sep. 2021 |
FCA
2 - 0
WIL
69%
18%
13%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 2021 |
FCP
0 - 1
FCA
2%
5%
92%
|
66 | 46 | 20 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Oct. 2021 |
THU
0 - 2
WIN
53%
25%
23%
|
70 | 63 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2021 |
FCV
1 - 3
THU
38%
25%
37%
|
69 | 68 | 1 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 2021 |
THU
3 - 2
NEX
52%
25%
23%
|
68 | 62 | 6 | +1 |
| 21 Sep. 2021 |
SCH
2 - 1
THU
24%
23%
53%
|
69 | 61 | 8 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 2021 |
THU
1 - 0
GCZ
38%
25%
37%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | 0 |