Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
36.7%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.5%
3-0
2.7%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
5.4%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.8%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.3%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.2%
39.1%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
0-1
7.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
11.6%
0-3
3%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.1%
0-4
1.1%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2021 |
FCA
0 - 0
WIN
47%
23%
30%
|
65 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Feb. 2021 |
FCA
4 - 0
NEX
63%
20%
17%
|
64 | 59 | 5 | +1 |
| 19 Feb. 2021 |
STA
1 - 1
FCA
30%
24%
46%
|
64 | 61 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Feb. 2021 |
GCZ
2 - 1
FCA
48%
24%
28%
|
65 | 71 | 6 | -1 |
| 10 Feb. 2021 |
FCA
4 - 2
SIO
29%
24%
48%
|
63 | 76 | 13 | +2 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb. 2021 |
THU
0 - 2
STA
59%
22%
19%
|
71 | 61 | 10 | 0 |
| 19 Feb. 2021 |
SCH
4 - 0
THU
22%
24%
55%
|
73 | 61 | 12 | -2 |
| 12 Feb. 2021 |
THU
0 - 2
GCZ
49%
24%
27%
|
73 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Feb. 2021 |
NEX
0 - 3
THU
18%
23%
59%
|
73 | 58 | 15 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2021 |
THU
2 - 0
KRI
65%
20%
15%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | 0 |