Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
38.5%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
1%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.4%
3-0
3%
4-1
1.3%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.5%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
11.3%
1-0
9.8%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.9%
26.2%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.2%
35.3%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
8%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
19.9%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
3.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
10.1%
0-3
2.5%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug. 2014 |
FCL
1 - 1
FCA
49%
25%
27%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2014 |
TAV
1 - 7
FCA
5%
11%
85%
|
72 | 32 | 40 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 2
GCZ
30%
25%
45%
|
72 | 81 | 9 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2014 |
STG
2 - 2
FCA
47%
25%
28%
|
72 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 1
FCV
54%
23%
23%
|
72 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2014 |
THU
0 - 5
KSC
57%
23%
20%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 30 Aug. 2014 |
THU
2 - 1
SIO
52%
25%
23%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Aug. 2014 |
BRE
1 - 3
THU
15%
21%
65%
|
78 | 55 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2014 |
THU
3 - 1
STG
47%
25%
28%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2014 |
YOB
1 - 1
THU
52%
24%
23%
|
77 | 80 | 3 | +1 |