Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
43.3%
Win probability
1.42
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.4%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
12.9%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.5%
26.3%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
30.4%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.4%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.9%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2005 |
FCA
2 - 3
ZUR
39%
26%
35%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2005 |
BAS
4 - 2
FCA
71%
17%
12%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | -1 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
FCA
2 - 3
GCZ
38%
25%
37%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Mar. 2005 |
STG
0 - 0
FCA
57%
23%
21%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2005 |
FCA
1 - 2
NEX
48%
25%
27%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 2005 |
THU
2 - 1
NEX
58%
23%
19%
|
79 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2005 |
SCH
0 - 1
THU
26%
27%
47%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
| 16 Mar. 2005 |
GCZ
1 - 0
THU
56%
23%
22%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | -1 |
| 13 Mar. 2005 |
THU
3 - 0
BAS
34%
26%
40%
|
78 | 85 | 7 | +1 |
| 13 Feb. 2005 |
YOB
2 - 0
THU
59%
22%
19%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |