Aarau vs Thun analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.3%
Win probability
1.97
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.8%
2-0
10.5%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
10.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
21.3%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.3%
17.4%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Apr. 2000 |
BEL
2 - 2
FCA
49%
24%
27%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2000 |
LUG
3 - 2
FCA
56%
24%
21%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 0
BAD
66%
21%
14%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | +1 |
| 19 Mar. 2000 |
SIO
2 - 0
FCA
53%
24%
22%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | -1 |
| 12 Mar. 2000 |
FCA
0 - 0
ZUR
33%
26%
41%
|
71 | 81 | 10 | +1 |
Matches
Thun
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2000 |
THU
1 - 2
ZUR
32%
24%
44%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | 0 |
| 08 Apr. 2000 |
THU
1 - 1
DEL
49%
24%
27%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Apr. 2000 |
SIO
3 - 0
THU
62%
22%
16%
|
70 | 76 | 6 | -1 |
| 26 Mar. 2000 |
THU
0 - 1
ZUR
26%
27%
48%
|
70 | 82 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2000 |
LUG
2 - 1
THU
62%
21%
16%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | -1 |