Aarau vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
17.2%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.2%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.3%
1-0
4.8%
2-1
4.7%
3-2
1.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.4%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
9.8%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
20.8%
62%
Win probability
2.04
Expected goals
0-1
10.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
6.7%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
18.9%
0-3
7%
1-4
3.4%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.1%
0-4
3.5%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
5.2%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Sep. 2024 |
GCZ
1 - 2
FCA
61%
20%
19%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 2
BEL
49%
24%
27%
|
67 | 65 | 2 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
FCA
1 - 0
ETO
46%
24%
30%
|
67 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
SUH
0 - 4
FCA
2%
6%
91%
|
66 | 9 | 57 | +1 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
STA
1 - 1
FCA
53%
23%
24%
|
66 | 72 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Sep. 2024 |
FCV
1 - 0
FCL
21%
22%
58%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 01 Sep. 2024 |
ZUR
1 - 1
FCL
48%
24%
29%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
FCL
3 - 0
WIN
47%
25%
28%
|
83 | 79 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
MEN
1 - 4
FCL
4%
12%
85%
|
83 | 42 | 41 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
LUG
2 - 3
FCL
48%
24%
28%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |