Aarau vs Luzern analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
53.9%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.5%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.8%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.4%
22.7%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jul. 2001 |
GCZ
1 - 0
FCA
77%
14%
9%
|
73 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2001 |
BEL
1 - 6
FCA
40%
25%
35%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2001 |
FCA
2 - 0
YOB
48%
25%
27%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2001 |
YVE
1 - 1
FCA
48%
24%
28%
|
73 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2001 |
FCA
3 - 0
FCL
51%
24%
25%
|
72 | 71 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Luzern
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Jul. 2001 |
FCL
0 - 0
NEX
45%
24%
31%
|
70 | 72 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2001 |
FCL
2 - 3
WIN
57%
24%
19%
|
71 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 May. 2001 |
NEX
2 - 2
FCL
57%
22%
21%
|
71 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2001 |
FCL
4 - 0
WIL
48%
25%
28%
|
70 | 71 | 1 | +1 |
| 12 May. 2001 |
FCA
3 - 0
FCL
51%
24%
25%
|
71 | 72 | 1 | -1 |