Aarau vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
30.6%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.4%
2-0
4.2%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.8%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
17%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
4.5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.5%
45.9%
Win probability
1.73
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
9.2%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.7%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.6%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
13.9%
0-3
3.9%
1-4
2.3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
6.8%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.6%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.8%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2016 |
CHI
3 - 1
FCA
20%
25%
55%
|
69 | 57 | 12 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
FCA
0 - 1
WIL
53%
23%
25%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | +1 |
| 02 Oct. 2016 |
SER
1 - 0
FCA
29%
26%
45%
|
68 | 59 | 9 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2016 |
FCA
1 - 1
ZUR
31%
25%
44%
|
68 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2016 |
WOH
1 - 4
FCA
18%
24%
58%
|
67 | 53 | 14 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2016 |
LUG
2 - 2
BAS
22%
23%
55%
|
74 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
LUG
0 - 0
YOB
33%
25%
42%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2016 |
INT
1 - 0
LUG
68%
20%
13%
|
74 | 86 | 12 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 2016 |
LAU
4 - 1
LUG
37%
26%
37%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | -1 |
| 25 Sep. 2016 |
THU
2 - 2
LUG
45%
25%
31%
|
75 | 76 | 1 | 0 |