Aarau vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.4%
Win probability
1.48
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.3%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
25.8%
Draw
0-0
7.2%
1-1
12.3%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.8%
29.8%
Win probability
1.16
Expected goals
0-1
8.3%
1-2
7.1%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
17.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8.3%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.8%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
-13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2000 |
SER
2 - 1
FCA
60%
22%
18%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2000 |
ZUR
1 - 0
FCA
62%
21%
17%
|
74 | 82 | 8 | -1 |
| 04 Jun. 2000 |
FCA
3 - 1
SIO
40%
25%
35%
|
73 | 78 | 5 | +1 |
| 27 May. 2000 |
BAD
1 - 3
FCA
29%
26%
46%
|
73 | 62 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 2
LUG
45%
26%
30%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2000 |
LUG
1 - 0
STG
35%
25%
40%
|
76 | 81 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 2000 |
LUG
1 - 1
DEL
65%
20%
15%
|
77 | 66 | 11 | -1 |
| 04 Jun. 2000 |
THU
2 - 3
LUG
38%
27%
35%
|
77 | 70 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2000 |
LUG
1 - 1
BEL
58%
23%
19%
|
77 | 71 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 May. 2000 |
FCA
2 - 2
LUG
45%
26%
30%
|
77 | 73 | 4 | 0 |