Aarau vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
26.5%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.5%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.7%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.8%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.5%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7.3%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
49.7%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.8%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.4%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.1%
0-3
4.6%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.5%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.8%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.9%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2014 |
ZUR
2 - 2
FCA
55%
24%
21%
|
73 | 81 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
28%
24%
48%
|
73 | 85 | 12 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2014 |
FCA
4 - 0
GCZ
26%
25%
49%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | +1 |
| 07 May. 2014 |
YOB
2 - 2
FCA
62%
21%
18%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2014 |
FCA
3 - 1
LAU
60%
22%
19%
|
71 | 66 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May. 2014 |
BAS
4 - 2
LAU
72%
18%
10%
|
85 | 65 | 20 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2014 |
FCA
1 - 3
BAS
28%
24%
48%
|
85 | 73 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2014 |
YOB
3 - 1
BAS
35%
25%
40%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2014 |
BAS
3 - 1
FCL
57%
22%
21%
|
85 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2014 |
STG
0 - 3
BAS
27%
25%
48%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |