Aarau vs Baden analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.7%
Win probability
2.17
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.7%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13.2%
2-0
12.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.8%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.8%
12.5%
Win probability
0.8
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
8.9%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+15%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
3º
7º
6º
26
5º
10º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
79 | 79 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
76 | 76 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
49 | 49 |
3º
|
0% | |
|
4º
|
49 | 49 |
4º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 44 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
|
6º
|
43 | 43 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
43 | 43 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
38 | 38 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
|
10º
|
26 | 26 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aarau
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
ALT
1 - 0
FCA
38%
24%
38%
|
68 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
2 - 0
FCA
39%
23%
39%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2023 |
FCL
2 - 1
FCA
56%
21%
23%
|
69 | 79 | 10 | -1 |
| 27 May. 2023 |
FCA
2 - 2
LAU
45%
26%
29%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2023 |
YVE
1 - 1
FCA
34%
25%
42%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Baden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
WIN
5 - 0
BAD
69%
18%
13%
|
57 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2023 |
FCW
2 - 3
BAD
16%
20%
64%
|
57 | 46 | 11 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2023 |
BAD
2 - 0
TUG
70%
17%
14%
|
56 | 47 | 9 | +1 |
| 01 Jul. 2023 |
BAD
2 - 1
WIN
82%
12%
6%
|
56 | 40 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2023 |
BAD
4 - 0
CHA
43%
24%
34%
|
55 | 56 | 1 | +1 |