Excelsior vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
12.6%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.5%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
1%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.9%
1-0
3.9%
2-1
3.6%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.8%
18.3%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.3%
69.1%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
0-1
10.3%
1-2
9.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.6%
0-2
11.5%
1-3
7.2%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
20.7%
0-3
8.6%
1-4
4%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
13.5%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
1.8%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
6.9%
0-5
2.2%
1-6
0.7%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.9%
0-6
0.8%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
32
3º
16º
15º
69
1º
5º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
82 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
75 | 75 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
69 | 69 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
67 | 67 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
64 | 64 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
59 | 59 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
54 | 54 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
46 | 46 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
41 | 41 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
40 | 40 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
40 | 40 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
39 | 39 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
36 | 36 |
14º
|
0% | |
|
|
15º
|
32 | 32 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
28 | 28 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
19 | 19 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
18 | 18 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 100% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2023 |
UTR
1 - 0
EXC
62%
21%
16%
|
65 | 79 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Jan. 2023 |
EXC
2 - 0
VOL
42%
24%
34%
|
64 | 65 | 1 | +1 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
SPA
1 - 0
EXC
56%
23%
21%
|
64 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2023 |
EXC
1 - 4
AZA
13%
21%
67%
|
65 | 86 | 21 | -1 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
EXC
1 - 0
GRO
35%
25%
40%
|
64 | 70 | 6 | +1 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2023 |
AJA
1 - 1
VOL
83%
11%
6%
|
88 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2023 |
FEY
1 - 1
AJA
46%
23%
32%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
AJA
0 - 0
TWE
73%
16%
11%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2023 |
BOS
0 - 2
AJA
5%
14%
82%
|
88 | 54 | 34 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
NEC
1 - 1
AJA
11%
18%
72%
|
88 | 70 | 18 | 0 |