Excelsior vs Ajax analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
11.8%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.6%
3-1
0.7%
4-2
0.1%
+2
2.4%
1-0
5%
2-1
3.1%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
0.1%
+1
8.8%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20.8%
67.5%
Win probability
1.91
Expected goals
0-1
14.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
26.1%
0-2
14.2%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
-2
20.9%
0-3
9%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
12.1%
0-4
4.3%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.1%
-4
5.5%
0-5
1.6%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
2%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.6%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1986 |
AZA
3 - 0
EXC
63%
22%
15%
|
65 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1986 |
FOR
3 - 0
EXC
59%
23%
18%
|
65 | 70 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1986 |
EXC
1 - 0
BVV
56%
25%
20%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 1986 |
EXC
0 - 2
SPA
40%
27%
33%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | -1 |
| 16 Aug. 1986 |
GAE
1 - 0
EXC
68%
18%
13%
|
66 | 68 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Ajax
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug. 1986 |
AJA
3 - 0
PSV
66%
18%
17%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Aug. 1986 |
AJA
2 - 3
ADO
94%
4%
1%
|
88 | 55 | 33 | 0 |
| 24 Aug. 1986 |
HFC
0 - 3
AJA
18%
22%
60%
|
88 | 72 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1986 |
SPA
3 - 1
AJA
25%
22%
52%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | 0 |
| 19 May. 1986 |
AJA
6 - 0
TWE
91%
6%
3%
|
88 | 69 | 19 | 0 |