Excelsior .31 vs IJsselmeervogels analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
19.5%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.4%
2-0
2.8%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.9%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.8%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
57.8%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
0-1
11.3%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.5%
0-2
10.3%
1-3
6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.8%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
9.6%
0-4
2.9%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1.1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+26%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
4º
16º
15º
82
1º
12º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
82 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
70 | 70 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
67 | 67 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
57 | 60 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
54 | 54 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
52 | 52 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
45 | 48 |
8º
|
82% | |
|
9º
|
44 | 45 |
9º
|
76% | |
|
11º
|
42 | 42 |
10º
|
29% | |
|
10º
|
42 | 42 |
11º
|
44% | |
|
12º
|
40 | 41 |
12º
|
58% | |
|
13º
|
40 | 40 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 36 |
14º
|
39.5% | |
|
|
16º
|
33 | 36 |
15º
|
37.5% | |
|
14º
|
35 | 35 |
16º
|
18.5% | |
|
17º
|
30 | 30 |
17º
|
81% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 10 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 100% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
16% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
65% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
19% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Excelsior .31
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
EEM
4 - 0
EXC
63%
20%
17%
|
52 | 57 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
EXC
3 - 1
TIE
47%
23%
30%
|
51 | 52 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
AJA
3 - 3
EXC
44%
23%
32%
|
51 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
DEM
1 - 1
EXC
36%
24%
40%
|
51 | 47 | 4 | 0 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
EXC
0 - 1
HSC
63%
19%
18%
|
51 | 48 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
IJsselmeervogels
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
IJS
3 - 1
GEN
64%
20%
16%
|
65 | 58 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
SPO
1 - 0
IJS
25%
25%
50%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | -1 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
IJS
3 - 2
SPA
51%
23%
26%
|
66 | 64 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
IJS
3 - 0
DOV
56%
23%
22%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | +1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
DVS
4 - 1
IJS
40%
25%
35%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | 0 |