Eritrea vs Somalia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.5%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
19%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
6%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
40.6%
Win probability
1.5
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Dec. 2009 |
RWA
2 - 1
ERI
70%
19%
10%
|
36 | 62 | 26 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2008 |
LBY
4 - 2
ERI
81%
14%
6%
|
37 | 74 | 37 | -1 |
| 30 Apr. 2008 |
ERI
3 - 1
SLE
11%
20%
69%
|
34 | 68 | 34 | +3 |
| 24 Apr. 2008 |
OMA
1 - 0
ERI
88%
9%
3%
|
34 | 81 | 47 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2008 |
SDN
0 - 2
ERI
78%
14%
7%
|
32 | 67 | 35 | +2 |
Matches
Somalia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2009 |
SOM
0 - 1
RWA
24%
23%
53%
|
41 | 62 | 21 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2009 |
UGA
4 - 0
SOM
81%
13%
6%
|
42 | 72 | 30 | -1 |
| 05 Jan. 2009 |
RWA
3 - 0
SOM
68%
20%
12%
|
42 | 65 | 23 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2009 |
SOM
1 - 0
TAN
25%
24%
51%
|
41 | 66 | 25 | +1 |
| 23 Dec. 2008 |
DJI
2 - 3
SOM
55%
22%
24%
|
40 | 40 | 0 | +1 |