Eritrea vs Kenya analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6%
Win probability
0.46
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.2%
4-2
<0%
+2
1%
1-0
3%
2-1
1.6%
3-2
0.3%
4-3
<0%
+1
4.9%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
15.4%
78.6%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
0-1
14.9%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.1%
0-2
16.8%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
23.5%
0-3
12.7%
1-4
3.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
16.3%
0-4
7.2%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
8.8%
0-5
3.2%
1-6
0.6%
2-7
0%
-5
3.8%
0-6
1.2%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
1.4%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2003 |
UGA
2 - 1
ERI
90%
8%
2%
|
21 | 72 | 51 | 0 |
| 16 Nov. 2003 |
ERI
0 - 0
SDN
8%
18%
74%
|
21 | 67 | 46 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2003 |
SDN
3 - 0
ERI
86%
10%
3%
|
21 | 67 | 46 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2003 |
ZIM
2 - 0
ERI
88%
10%
2%
|
21 | 76 | 55 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2003 |
ERI
1 - 0
SYC
32%
24%
44%
|
16 | 45 | 29 | +5 |
Matches
Kenya
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 2003 |
KEN
3 - 0
TAN
68%
20%
12%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2003 |
TAN
0 - 0
KEN
30%
26%
45%
|
74 | 59 | 15 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
RWA
0 - 1
KEN
36%
27%
38%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2003 |
KEN
1 - 0
CPV
70%
19%
12%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 22 Jun. 2003 |
TOG
2 - 0
KEN
31%
27%
43%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |