Eritrea vs Mali analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
6%
Win probability
0.44
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.1%
4-1
<0%
+3
0.1%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.2%
4-2
<0%
+2
0.9%
1-0
3.1%
2-1
1.5%
3-2
0.2%
4-3
<0%
+1
4.9%
15.9%
Draw
0-0
7.1%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
15.9%
78.1%
Win probability
2.2
Expected goals
0-1
15.7%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
-1
24.6%
0-2
17.3%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0%
-2
23.6%
0-3
12.7%
1-4
3.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
16.1%
0-4
7%
1-5
1.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
8.5%
0-5
3.1%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0%
-5
3.6%
0-6
1.1%
1-7
0.2%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.4%
1-8
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+35%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Eritrea
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Dec. 2002 |
TAN
1 - 1
ERI
86%
10%
4%
|
16 | 63 | 47 | 0 |
| 06 Dec. 2002 |
KEN
4 - 1
ERI
87%
10%
2%
|
16 | 71 | 55 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2002 |
ERI
2 - 1
SDN
19%
24%
58%
|
14 | 67 | 53 | +2 |
| 01 Dec. 2002 |
BDI
1 - 1
ERI
84%
11%
5%
|
14 | 52 | 38 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2002 |
ERI
0 - 1
ZIM
8%
19%
73%
|
14 | 76 | 62 | 0 |
Matches
Mali
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2003 |
MLI
1 - 0
GUI
53%
25%
23%
|
76 | 72 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Nov. 2002 |
MAR
1 - 3
MLI
68%
21%
11%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | +1 |
| 13 Oct. 2002 |
MLI
3 - 0
SYC
83%
13%
4%
|
75 | 44 | 31 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2002 |
MLI
2 - 0
AUS
24%
27%
50%
|
73 | 90 | 17 | +2 |
| 02 Oct. 2002 |
MLI
2 - 1
AUS
23%
27%
51%
|
72 | 90 | 18 | +1 |