Dunedin vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
22.1%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
0.8%
3-0
1%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
2.5%
2-0
2%
3-1
2.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
6.2%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
12.3%
18.5%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.7%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
18.5%
59.4%
Win probability
2.51
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
8.5%
2-3
5.4%
3-4
1.7%
4-5
0.3%
5-6
0%
-1
20.5%
0-2
5.6%
1-3
7.1%
2-4
3.4%
3-5
0.9%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
17.2%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
4.5%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.4%
4-7
0%
-3
11.3%
0-4
3%
1-5
2.3%
2-6
0.7%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
6.1%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.3%
3-8
0%
-5
2.7%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
1.1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-10%
+30%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
14
3º
10º
7º
20
1º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
29 | 42 |
1º
|
68.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 40 |
2º
|
56.5% | |
|
3º
|
27 | 40 |
3º
|
56.5% | |
|
4º
|
21 | 28 |
4º
|
41% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 27 |
5º
|
32% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 25 |
6º
|
34.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
14 | 21 |
7º
|
39.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 19 |
8º
|
49.5% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
69.5% | |
|
10º
|
2 | 5 |
10º
|
69.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Dunedin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr. 2025 |
NOM
0 - 2
DUN
66%
17%
17%
|
16 | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
DUN
1 - 0
WNK
17%
17%
66%
|
14 | 22 | 8 | +2 |
| 30 Mar. 2025 |
COA
5 - 1
DUN
79%
13%
8%
|
14 | 29 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
SUF
5 - 0
DUN
22%
20%
59%
|
16 | 9 | 7 | -2 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
DUN
0 - 5
COA
18%
18%
64%
|
17 | 28 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr. 2025 |
NSF
7 - 1
UOC
89%
7%
4%
|
22 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2025 |
CHR
1 - 1
NSF
81%
12%
8%
|
22 | 38 | 16 | 0 |
| 30 Mar. 2025 |
NSF
4 - 1
FER
74%
15%
12%
|
21 | 17 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
1 - 1
CHR
12%
16%
73%
|
21 | 39 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FER
2 - 3
NSF
35%
22%
43%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | +1 |