Dunedin vs Nelson Suburbs analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
23.7%
Win probability
1.58
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.1%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
2.8%
2-0
2.1%
3-1
2.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
0.1%
+2
6.7%
1-0
2.7%
2-1
5.3%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
12.9%
18.8%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
6.6%
3-3
2.9%
4-4
0.7%
5-5
0.1%
6-6
<0%
0
18.8%
57.5%
Win probability
2.49
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-3
5.5%
3-4
1.8%
4-5
0.4%
5-6
0%
-1
20.3%
0-2
5.3%
1-3
6.9%
2-4
3.4%
3-5
0.9%
4-6
0.1%
5-7
0%
-2
16.7%
0-3
4.4%
1-4
4.3%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.4%
4-7
0.1%
-3
10.8%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.7%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
5.7%
0-5
1.4%
1-6
0.9%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
2.5%
0-6
0.6%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
1%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0.1%
2-9
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
+25%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
19
7º
9º
7º
29
1º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
47 | 47 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
45 | 45 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
|
4º
|
29 | 32 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
25 | 25 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
24 | 24 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
|
7º
|
19 | 19 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
14 | 14 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
11 | 11 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 1 |
10º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Series
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Dunedin
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
DUN
0 - 5
COA
18%
18%
64%
|
17 | 28 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
UOC
1 - 2
DUN
17%
19%
65%
|
17 | 10 | 7 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
FCT
1 - 2
DUN
14%
17%
69%
|
17 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
DUN
1 - 3
CHR
12%
15%
74%
|
18 | 39 | 21 | -1 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
FER
3 - 2
DUN
52%
21%
27%
|
19 | 20 | 1 | -1 |
Matches
Nelson Suburbs
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
1 - 1
CHR
12%
16%
73%
|
21 | 39 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FER
2 - 3
NSF
35%
22%
43%
|
20 | 19 | 1 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
NSF
2 - 2
NOM
53%
20%
27%
|
20 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
CAS
6 - 2
NSF
90%
7%
3%
|
21 | 38 | 17 | -1 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
NSF
5 - 1
UOC
87%
9%
5%
|
21 | 11 | 10 | 0 |