UCL Qualifying Third Round Final
Global 3-4
Dinamo Zagreb vs AEK Athens analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
56.6%
Win probability
1.88
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.9%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.4%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.3%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.7%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
21%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
3%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.5%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Dinamo Zagreb
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Aug. 2023 |
DZG
0 - 0
HNG
72%
17%
11%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 Aug. 2023 |
AST
0 - 2
DZG
26%
26%
49%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
IST
0 - 3
DZG
17%
24%
59%
|
85 | 71 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2023 |
DZG
4 - 0
AST
67%
19%
14%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2023 |
DZG
1 - 2
HKS
49%
24%
28%
|
85 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
AEK Athens
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul. 2023 |
TRA
1 - 3
AEK
53%
24%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2023 |
VNF
0 - 3
AEK
23%
24%
53%
|
83 | 63 | 20 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2023 |
AEK
5 - 0
SHA
36%
24%
40%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Jul. 2023 |
ANT
0 - 3
AEK
51%
25%
24%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2023 |
LOK
1 - 0
AEK
35%
26%
38%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |