Europa Conference League qualifiers Second Round Final
First leg 1-0
Differdange 03 vs The New Saints analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
44.5%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.4%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
20.9%
23.3%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
6.5%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
32.2%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.4%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
3.6%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.3%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Differdange 03
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 1
DIF
56%
20%
25%
|
68 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
DIF
2 - 3
FCD
46%
25%
29%
|
69 | 69 | 0 | -1 |
| 08 Jul. 2025 |
FCD
1 - 0
DIF
39%
24%
37%
|
70 | 68 | 2 | -1 |
| 28 Jun. 2025 |
LOU
0 - 0
DIF
64%
20%
16%
|
69 | 81 | 12 | +1 |
| 26 Jun. 2025 |
UNA
1 - 2
DIF
44%
24%
33%
|
69 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
The New Saints
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 1
DIF
56%
20%
25%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2025 |
SHK
2 - 1
TNS
37%
22%
40%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Jul. 2025 |
TNS
0 - 0
SHK
66%
17%
16%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 01 Jul. 2025 |
NEW
1 - 0
TNS
39%
22%
39%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 27 Jun. 2025 |
AYR
1 - 1
TNS
60%
20%
20%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | 0 |