Derby County U21 vs Southampton U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
6.4%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
4-0
<0%
5-1
<0%
+4
<0%
3-0
0.2%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.3%
2-0
0.7%
3-1
0.5%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
1.3%
1-0
1.9%
2-1
2%
3-2
0.7%
4-3
0.1%
5-4
<0%
+1
4.8%
12%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
5.6%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
12%
81.5%
Win probability
2.89
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
8.1%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
19.3%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7.8%
2-4
2%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
21.5%
0-3
10.9%
1-4
5.6%
2-5
1.2%
3-6
0.1%
-3
17.9%
0-4
7.9%
1-5
3.3%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
11.8%
0-5
4.6%
1-6
1.6%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
6.4%
0-6
2.2%
1-7
0.6%
2-8
0.1%
-6
2.9%
0-7
0.9%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
1.2%
0-8
0.3%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.4%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+58%
+44%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
10º
11º
42
1º
3º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
43 | 43 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
|
2º
|
42 | 42 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 30 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 20 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 14 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
1 | 1 |
11º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 5
MID
11%
14%
75%
|
23 | 39 | 16 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 6
STC
30%
22%
48%
|
24 | 31 | 7 | -1 |
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
LUS
3 - 0
DCO
87%
10%
4%
|
24 | 49 | 25 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2023 |
SUN
1 - 1
DCO
83%
11%
6%
|
24 | 40 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2023 |
DCO
0 - 3
NOR
7%
15%
78%
|
24 | 54 | 30 | 0 |
Matches
Southampton U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Mar. 2023 |
AVI
1 - 2
SOU
45%
23%
32%
|
47 | 46 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Mar. 2023 |
SOU
0 - 2
NOT
55%
22%
23%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | -1 |
| 24 Feb. 2023 |
SOU
1 - 2
LUS
48%
23%
29%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | -1 |
| 20 Feb. 2023 |
WBA
1 - 2
SOU
34%
24%
43%
|
49 | 44 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2023 |
SOU
2 - 2
SUN
72%
17%
11%
|
49 | 40 | 9 | 0 |