Derby County U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
32.8%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
1.5%
3-0
2%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
4.3%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
3.9%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.6%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
16.8%
21.7%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
7.1%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.5%
5-5
0.1%
0
21.7%
45.6%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
4.6%
3-4
1.2%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
20%
0-2
5.2%
1-3
5.6%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.5%
4-6
0.1%
-2
13.7%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
2.8%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
7.2%
0-4
1.7%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
3.1%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.4%
2-7
0.1%
3-8
0%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+58%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
10º
11º
41
2º
9º
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
3º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
43 | 43 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 42 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 30 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 20 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 14 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
1 | 1 |
11º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 100% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep. 2022 |
NOR
2 - 1
DCO
86%
10%
4%
|
27 | 53 | 26 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2022 |
WBA
2 - 1
DCO
75%
15%
11%
|
27 | 39 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2022 |
NWC
4 - 0
DCO
72%
16%
12%
|
28 | 38 | 10 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2022 |
DCO
0 - 4
SUN
25%
21%
54%
|
30 | 40 | 10 | -2 |
| 12 Aug. 2022 |
MID
3 - 1
DCO
64%
18%
18%
|
31 | 37 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Nottingham Forest U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Oct. 2022 |
NOT
1 - 0
SUN
28%
22%
51%
|
31 | 40 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Sep. 2022 |
NWC
2 - 1
NOT
66%
18%
16%
|
32 | 39 | 7 | -1 |
| 29 Aug. 2022 |
LUS
5 - 1
NOT
75%
14%
10%
|
33 | 44 | 11 | -1 |
| 22 Aug. 2022 |
NOT
1 - 4
MID
40%
22%
38%
|
34 | 37 | 3 | -1 |
| 08 Aug. 2022 |
NOT
1 - 3
SOU
22%
23%
55%
|
36 | 47 | 11 | -2 |