Derby County U21 vs Middlesbrough U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
10.7%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.2%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
0.7%
2-0
1.1%
3-1
1.1%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
2.6%
1-0
2.1%
2-1
3.1%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
0.1%
+1
7.1%
14.3%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
6.1%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.3%
75%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
0-1
6%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
4.2%
3-4
1%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
20%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
8.2%
2-4
3%
3-5
0.6%
4-6
0.1%
-2
20.3%
0-3
8.1%
1-4
5.8%
2-5
1.7%
3-6
0.3%
4-7
0%
-3
15.9%
0-4
5.7%
1-5
3.3%
2-6
0.8%
3-7
0.1%
4-8
0%
-4
10%
0-5
3.3%
1-6
1.6%
2-7
0.3%
3-8
0%
-5
5.2%
0-6
1.5%
1-7
0.6%
2-8
0.1%
3-9
0%
-6
2.3%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
0.9%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0.1%
2-10
0%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+52%
-5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
10º
11º
26
2º
7º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
43 | 43 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 42 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
41 | 41 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 35 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 33 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 30 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
|
7º
|
26 | 26 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
8º
|
23 | 23 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 20 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
14 | 14 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
1 | 1 |
11º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Mar. 2023 |
DCO
1 - 6
STC
30%
22%
48%
|
24 | 31 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
LUS
3 - 0
DCO
87%
10%
4%
|
24 | 49 | 25 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2023 |
SUN
1 - 1
DCO
83%
11%
6%
|
24 | 40 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2023 |
DCO
0 - 3
NOR
7%
15%
78%
|
24 | 54 | 30 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
NOT
7 - 2
DCO
85%
10%
5%
|
25 | 44 | 19 | -1 |
Matches
Middlesbrough U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Mar. 2023 |
MID
2 - 3
AVI
32%
24%
44%
|
39 | 46 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 2023 |
NOR
2 - 2
MID
76%
15%
9%
|
39 | 53 | 14 | 0 |
| 20 Feb. 2023 |
STC
1 - 2
MID
30%
20%
50%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2023 |
MID
2 - 4
WBA
40%
24%
36%
|
40 | 43 | 3 | -2 |
| 27 Jan. 2023 |
MID
2 - 2
SOU
23%
23%
54%
|
39 | 49 | 10 | +1 |