Derby County vs Reading analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
64.5%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.3%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.7%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
1.7%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.9%
20%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
20%
15.6%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
4.5%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2015 |
BOU
2 - 2
DER
47%
25%
28%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2015 |
DER
4 - 1
BOL
60%
22%
18%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | +1 |
| 31 Jan. 2015 |
CAR
0 - 2
DER
32%
26%
42%
|
79 | 71 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2015 |
DER
2 - 0
BBU
51%
23%
26%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2015 |
DER
2 - 0
CHE
69%
19%
13%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | +1 |
Matches
Reading
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2015 |
REA
0 - 2
LEE
62%
22%
16%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2015 |
WOL
1 - 2
REA
51%
25%
25%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2015 |
REA
2 - 0
SHW
55%
24%
21%
|
71 | 69 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Jan. 2015 |
MIL
0 - 0
REA
24%
25%
51%
|
71 | 59 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2015 |
CAR
1 - 2
REA
50%
23%
27%
|
71 | 71 | 0 | 0 |