Derby County vs Middlesbrough analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of handicap
61.9%
Win probability
2.56
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
1.2%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
3.3%
5-1
2.4%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.4%
7-4
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
6%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
3.4%
5-3
0.8%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
17.8%
1-0
4.7%
2-1
8.6%
3-2
5.3%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.6%
18%
Draw
0-0
1.8%
1-1
6.7%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.5%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
18%
20.1%
Win probability
1.44
Expected goals
0-1
2.6%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.9%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
11.5%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+16%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 1935 |
DER
2 - 1
BRE
77%
13%
10%
|
84 | 77 | 7 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1935 |
HUR
1 - 1
DER
58%
20%
22%
|
84 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1935 |
DER
2 - 0
PNE
72%
16%
13%
|
83 | 76 | 7 | +1 |
| 07 Sep. 1935 |
DER
4 - 0
BOL
70%
16%
14%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1935 |
PNE
1 - 0
DER
44%
24%
33%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Middlesbrough
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Sep. 1935 |
MID
4 - 2
WOL
55%
21%
25%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 1935 |
MID
0 - 0
BRE
63%
18%
19%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | -1 |
| 09 Sep. 1935 |
ASV
2 - 7
MID
67%
16%
17%
|
79 | 82 | 3 | +1 |
| 07 Sep. 1935 |
PNE
0 - 5
MID
47%
21%
32%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 1935 |
MID
1 - 2
ASV
49%
22%
29%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |